The U.S. solar industry is preparing for a significant increase in costs as President-elect Donald Trump’s expected import tariffs, combined with new antidumping duties on Southeast Asian solar products, threaten to disrupt supply chains and slow renewable energy growth.
With more than 80% of U.S. solar panels sourced from Southeast Asia, developers warn that these policies could raise project costs, delay installations, and challenge the country’s clean energy transition.
Why Are Solar Costs Rising?
Two key policy shifts are driving concerns within the industry:
1. Trump’s Expected Solar Tariffs
During his 2024 campaign, Trump pledged to reinstate and expand tariffs on imported solar panels as part of his broader “America First” economic agenda. Analysts expect these tariffs to be equal to or greater than the 30% duty he imposed in 2018, which was later phased down under President Biden.
- Supporters of tariffs argue they will boost U.S. solar manufacturing, reduce dependence on foreign imports, and create domestic jobs.
- Industry critics warn that higher panel costs could slow adoption of solar energy, making it less competitive with fossil fuels and hindering clean energy progress.
2. New Antidumping Duties on Southeast Asian Imports
In addition to Trump’s expected tariffs, the U.S. Department of Commerce recently imposed antidumping and countervailing duties on solar panels from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand—the three largest suppliers of solar panels to the U.S. since tariffs were first placed on Chinese-made panels.
- These duties aim to close loopholes that allowed Chinese manufacturers to bypass tariffs by assembling solar components in Southeast Asia.
- However, the move has already led to higher prices and tighter supply chains, making it more difficult for developers to keep projects on budget and schedule.
Impact on the U.S. Solar Industry
The combination of tariffs and antidumping duties could reshape the U.S. solar market in several key ways:
- Higher Costs for Solar Projects – Industry estimates suggest that utility-scale solar projects could see cost increases of 10–20%, potentially slowing the transition away from fossil fuels.
- Slowdown in Solar Installations – The U.S. was on track for record-breaking solar installations in 2025, but many projects may now face delays or cancellations due to higher costs.
- Potential Job Losses – With over 250,000 workers employed in the U.S. solar industry, project slowdowns could lead to job reductions in installation, construction, and manufacturing.
- Setback for U.S. Clean Energy Goals – The Biden administration’s goal of 100% clean electricity by 2035 may become harder to achieve if tariffs slow the expansion of affordable solar power.
Industry Reaction: A Divided Debate
The solar industry remains deeply divided over the new trade policies:
Opposition from Clean Energy Advocates
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), which represents solar developers and installers, has strongly criticized tariffs and trade restrictions.
“These tariffs will raise costs for American consumers and businesses, slow job growth, and set back our clean energy transition,” said SEIA CEO Abigail Ross Hopper.
Some major solar developers have already paused projects or are seeking alternative suppliers to offset the financial impact.
Support from Domestic Manufacturers
Some U.S.-based solar manufacturers have welcomed the tariffs, arguing that reducing dependence on foreign imports will help grow the domestic industry. However, even U.S. manufacturers still rely on foreign-made components, meaning they, too, could face higher costs.
“If we want a strong solar industry in the U.S., we need to invest in our own production, not just depend on imports,” said Michael Carr, a spokesperson for an American solar manufacturing coalition.
What’s Next for U.S. Solar?
The solar industry faces major uncertainty as it awaits Trump’s official trade policies in early 2025. Key questions include:
- Will Trump Implement Stricter Tariffs?
Industry leaders are watching closely for specific policy announcements after Trump’s January inauguration. - Can U.S. Manufacturing Scale Up Fast Enough?
Even if tariffs boost domestic production, scaling up supply chains could take years, leaving the industry vulnerable to higher costs in the short term. - Will Developers Shift to Alternative Suppliers?
Some solar companies are exploring sourcing from India, South Korea, and Mexico to reduce dependency on Southeast Asian imports.
Conclusion: A Crossroads for U.S. Solar
The U.S. solar industry is at a turning point. New trade restrictions threaten to increase costs, disrupt supply chains, and slow solar expansion, leaving industry leaders bracing for uncertainty as they navigate rising costs and shifting policies.
As President-elect Trump prepares to take office, the future of America’s clean energy transition—and its ability to compete in the global solar market—hangs in the balance.
